![]() ![]() ![]() And we find that the odds are greatly improved for late entrants when they are second entrants to the market, fast followers (launched within the same year or one year after the first entrant), and marketed by a large pharma company. When the first mover expands indications faster than later entrants within the first five years of launch, the first-mover effect is strongest across all dimensions we evaluated-13 percentage points above fair market share.ĭespite these circumstances, it is important to note that late movers win in more than 50 percent of the drug classes we evaluated. We find that a lead time of three years or more offers a fairly sizable advantage a gap between first and second entrant of one year or less is meaningless. The longer a first-in-class drug has to establish a standard of care, the greater the market-share advantage. Companies with prior experience in a therapeutic area have almost twice the first-to-market advantage than companies with no experience. When the first mover is a large pharma company, it has a significant advantage (worth greater than ten market-share points) when the first mover is not a large pharma company, we find that the first mover performs worse than fair share of the market. In more crowded markets with more than five players, however, we find the first-mover advantage is much weaker, as more late entrants have opportunity to take share from the first player. In two-horse races, the first mover generally garners greater advantage than the late entrant. ![]() Injectable drugs have stronger first-mover effects than oral preparations, which is consistent with the specialty/primary-care dynamic described above. In primary care, the first-mover effect is weaker, as the market opportunity and coverage requirements can be significantly larger, which provides an opening for later entrants to claim market positions. ![]() First-mover advantage is more pronounced in specialty areas with small numbers of prescribers and patients. Please email us at: Prescriber characteristics. If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. Yet first-to-market advantage is highly dependent on several market contexts (Exhibit 3): The relative disadvantage of later entries (up to the fifth entrant) is also roughly the same, meaning it is not meaningfully worse to be fifth than second to market. Overall, first-to-market players have a 6 percent market-share advantage over later entrants (Exhibit 2), but they achieve market-share leadership in less than 50 percent of the drug classes we evaluated. Our analysis shows that first-in-class players on average achieve a greater-than-fair market share, defined as 100 percent market share divided by number of entrants (Exhibit 1). Then, to assess the impact of order of entry on a class, we analyzed market share (measured by sales) for each entrant in the tenth year after the launch of the first drug. We filtered for those drugs that generated more than $100 million in annual sales and had one or more competitors during its patented life. To evaluate the value of first-to-market advantage, we analyzed 492 drug launches in 131 classes over a 27-year period (1986–2012). This article seeks to identify those situations where first-to-market advantage is strong and those where it does not hold. In many instances, the first-mover advantage actually vanishes, particularly when the lead time is short or when the first mover is a small company. Our analysis of pharma launches confirms a weak first-to-market advantage on average, but with significant nuances dependent on market context. In the high-stakes race to market for a novel drug class, companies firmly believe that every month of lead time ahead of a competitor is significant. Companies spend considerable resources seeking to increase the odds of beating their competitors to market and often fret about the commercial disadvantage of being late. There has been a long-running debate in the pharmaceutical industry about the value of being first to market. ![]()
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